As a result of the specifics of my AI research, I have come to a position somewhat more radical than that of most Singularity pundits. Kurzweil estimates 2045 for the Singularity, and 2029 for human-level AI via a brain emulation methodology. I think this is basically a plausible scenario (Though I do think that, if a human-level AI takes 16 years to create a Singularity, this slow pace will be due to intentional forbearance and caution rather than technological obstacles. I believe that a human-level AI, once it exists, will be able to improve its intelligence at a rapid rate, making Singularity imminent within months or a few years at most). But I also think a much more optimistic scenario is plausible.