The Republican primary numbers seem fluid to me, more so than the Democratic numbers. Giuliani jetted off to a big lead in February and March, then fell back to a small lead, with McCain making a slight recovery. But that's just in the national polls. The early contests look different. This is going to be a hard one to game out. Republican rules in the past have tended to be winnertakeall. But now some states are going to select delegates by district, including Florida and California, which votes February 5. That may allow candidates to cherry-pick delegates.