The draft of a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq says that the country is in danger of flying apart in a new spiral of violence provoked by unresolved conflicts between Sunnis, Shias, Kurds and other groups.

The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate.